I discuss this method mostly in the hopes of prompting further work. Communication method estimates may well prove informative, but I haven’t vetted them.Rather, I find some arguments in the vicinity persuasive (though not all of them rely directly on Landauer’s principle) various experts I spoke to (though not all) were quite confident in these arguments and other methods seem to point to lower numbers. However, I don’t think the method itself airtight. I think it unlikely that the required number of FLOP/s exceeds the bounds suggested by the limit method.Some estimates based on recent deep neural network models of retinal neurons point to higher numbers, but I take these as even weaker evidence. However, I take estimates based on the visual cortex as some weak evidence that the mechanistic method range above (10 13-10 17 FLOP/s) isn’t much too low. I give less weight to functional method estimates, primarily due to uncertainties about (a) the FLOP/s required to fully replicate the functions in question, (b) what the relevant portion of the brain is doing (in the case of the visual cortex), and (c) differences between that portion and the rest of the brain (in the case of the retina).
![thebrain 9 upload limit thebrain 9 upload limit](https://www.frontiersin.org/files/Articles/423160/fnins-13-00112-HTML/image_m/fnins-13-00112-g002.jpg)
![thebrain 9 upload limit thebrain 9 upload limit](https://media.springernature.com/full/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1038%2Fs41597-021-00823-z/MediaObjects/41597_2021_823_Fig1_HTML.png)
Of these, the latter seem to me stronger. Some considerations from this method point to higher numbers and some, to lower numbers. This is partly because various experts are sympathetic to these estimates (others are more skeptical), and partly because of the direct arguments in their support.
![thebrain 9 upload limit thebrain 9 upload limit](https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/41%2B2amPLWIL._SY291_BO1,204,203,200_QL40_ML2_.jpg)
![thebrain 9 upload limit thebrain 9 upload limit](https://i.pcmag.com/imagery/lineupitems/07MHoKBMprmoYw5GUNaVO60.fit_lim.size_1050x578.v1569507226.jpg)
Identify a portion of the brain whose function we can already approximate with artificial systems, and then scale up to a FLOP/s estimate for the whole brain (the “ functional method”).Estimate the FLOP/s required to model the brain’s mechanisms at a level of detail adequate to replicate task-performance (the “ mechanistic method”).I consulted with more than 30 experts, and considered four methods of generating estimates, focusing on floating point operations per second (FLOP/s) as a metric of computational power. How powerful is sufficiently powerful? I investigated what we can learn from the brain about this. Let’s grant that in principle, sufficiently powerful computers can perform any cognitive task that the human brain can. Overall FLOP/s for other signaling mechanisms.Crabs, locusts, and other considerations.